The Russian ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has been presenting the Kremlin’s allegations that Ukraine and the US had a plot to spread biological weapons with migratory birds, bats and insects.
Nebenzya issued a chilling warning to Eastern Europe that biological agents could spread across Ukraine’s borders:
We call upon you to think about a very real biological danger to the people in European countries, which can result from an uncontrolled spread of bio agents from Ukraine. And if there is a such a scenario then all Europe will be covered.
The risk of this is very real given the interests of the radical nationalist groups in Ukraine are showing towards the work with dangerous pathogens conducted together with the ministry of defence of the United States.
After Nebenzya spoke, Albania, the US and France voiced alarm that the allegations may be an advance cover story for Russian plans to unleash chemical or biological weapons.
US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said:
The intent behind these lies seem clear and it is deeply troubling. We believe Russia could use chemical or biological agents for assassinations as part of a false flag incident or to support tactical military operations.
What happens if Russia can’t pay its debts after western sanctions? The Guardian’s economic correspondent Richard Partington has some answers.
Russia is close to being unable to pay its debts amid sanctions imposed by the west after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
The World Bank’s chief economist, Carmen Reinhart, warned on Thursday that Russia and its ally Belarus were “mightily close” to default.
A key test will come on Wednesday next week, when the Russian state has to make a $117m (£89m) payment on some of its debts denominated in US dollars. While Russia has relatively low debts and its financial system is less integrated with the rest of the world than other countries’, some analysts warn an imminent Russian debt default could have unforeseen consequences.
What happens in a default?
A default occurs when a borrower fails to make agreed payments on their debts.
The Bank of Canada and Bank of England, which track global sovereign defaults, estimate the total value of government debt in default around the world was $443.2bn in 2020 – about 0.5% of world public debt.
Recent governments to default include Argentina, Belize, Ecuador and Suriname, with nations typically failing to keep up on payments denominated in foreign currencies. Some have strong track records, including the US and the UK. However, both have defaulted in the past – including Britain in 1672 under the reign of Charles II and the US in 1862 during the American civil war.
Russia must make two coupon, or regular interest, payments on 16 March. However, it will have a 30-day grace period, meaning a default would not formally happen until at least April.
When was the last time Russia defaulted?
Russia has defaulted before, including during the 1917 revolution and in 1998, when the country’s economy remained weak after the collapse of the Soviet union and the costs of war in Chechnya meant it was unable to keep up with its debt payments. However, even then, Russia kept up with dollar payments.
The so-called rouble crisis caused severe damage for neighbouring economies and sent shock waves through the global financial system, including huge losses for the US hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.
What’s at stake
Russia has strengthened its financial position in recent years in response to western sanctions imposed after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, with the government running budget surpluses and cutting its reliance on the US dollar.
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Russia’s external liabilities – money owed to creditors by the government, companies and households – have fallen from about $733bn in 2014 to about $480bn. Of this, $135bn is due to be paid to creditors within one year.
However, the amount owed by the government itself is relatively small. The state has about $40bn in foreign currency bonds denominated in dollars and euros – tiny compared with the size of its economy and with several comparable nations. Overseas investors also hold $28bn of Russian debt denominated in roubles.
However, the scale of the problem is bigger for Russian corporates, with just under $100bn in international bonds outstanding.
Investors in Russian debt include hedge funds, which prefer taking risky bets, and major global asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the US fund manager Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond market investors, has amassed a $1.5bn position in Russian sovereign debt.
The UN security council met on Friday at Russia’s request to discuss Moscow’s claims that the US is funding “military biological activities” in Ukraine – in other words, secretly developing biological weapons in Ukrainian laboratories. The event saw some heated discussion. The Russian ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, evoked the terrifying specter of an “uncontrolled spread of bio agents from Ukraine” across Europe. His American counterpart, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned that Russia’s claim could be a pretext for it launching its own biological weapons attack on Ukraine.
So what is the dispute all about, and what is actually happening inside Ukraine?
Russia makes claims of US-backed biological weapon plot at UNRead more
How did “bio labs” become the latest front in the Ukraine information war?
Last Sunday the Russian ministry of foreign affairs posted a tweet accusing the US and Ukrainian governments of running a secret “military-biological programme” inside the stricken country. Moscow claimed that its invading forces had discovered evidence of an “emergency clean-up” to hide the programme.
Moscow went on to claim that it had found documents related to the secret US operation in laboratories in the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Poltava.
The allegations were quickly amplified by China, which supported the claims during Friday’s UN security council debate. The theory also took on a life of its own on social media under the hashtag #usbiolabs, and found a welcome home among rightwing outlets in the US including the War Room podcast of Donald Trump’s former White House adviser Steve Bannon and the Fox News primetime show hosted by Tucker Carlson.
How have the US and Ukrainian governments responded?
Both the US and Ukraine have categorically denied that they are developing any biological weapons inside the country. At Friday’s meeting, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: “I will say this once: ‘Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program.’” She went on to turn the accusation back on Moscow. “It is Russia that has long maintained a biological weapon program in violation of international law.”
Ukraine’s ambassador to the world body, Sergiy Kyslytsya, used more colourful language. He called the idea being advanced by Russia “a bunch of insane delirium”.
What are independent world bodies saying?
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said it is unaware of activity by Ukraine violating any international treaty, including the ban on biological weapons.
The UN high commissioner for disarmament, Izumi Nakamitsu, confirmed that the UN was not aware of any biological weapons programmes in Ukraine. Nakamitsu pointed to the Biological Weapons Convention, which has prohibited the development and use of biological weapons since 1975. The convention was backed by then president Richard Nixon, who in 1969 also put a stop to the US developing its own offensive biological weapons.
So do bio labs exist inside Ukraine, and is the US supporting them?
Yes, and yes. Ukraine does operate biological laboratories which receive US funding. The US undersecretary of state Victoria Nuland affirmed those facts in a Senate foreign relations committee hearing this week in which the Republican senator Marco Rubio asked her directly whether Ukraine had biological weapons.
Nuland did not answer the question head on. “Ukraine has biological research facilities,” she replied, adding that there was concern that Russian forces were trying to gain control of the labs. “We are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces.”
Footage posted to social media from Melitopol’s city hall seems to show Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov being abducted by Russian forces.
From political analyst Mattia Nelles:
The [Ukraine] presidential office reports that the Russian occupiers have kidnapped Ivan Fedoro, the major of Melitopol in southern Ukraine. Security camera of the city hall seem to show the abduction.
Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n)
The
presidential office reports that the Russian occupiers have kidnapped Ivan Fedoro, the major of Melitopol in southern #Ukraine. Security camera of the city hall seem to show the abduction. pic.twitter.com/KfaXFQttn0
Russian forces are shelling the Ukrainian port of Mykolayiv, according to a regional governor, reports Reuters.
Dennis Kiyanchenko
#Миколаїв сильно, як ніколи, обстрілюють ракетами РСЗВ. Знову горять житлові будинки, є інформація про влучення в один із супермаркетів. Коротше, горить усе, що орки називають «військовою інфраструктурою НАТО».
Украина Новости / Ukraine War (@ukrainenewstop)
Из-за попадания в жилой сектор начался пожар в одном из районов #Николаева.#Миколаїв pic.twitter.com/c7UOvN05X8
Details are still forthcoming- stay tuned.
One of the unanswered questions in Russia’s war against Ukraine is the level of attrition being experienced by the Ukrainian military. Now it appears a US defence official may have given some idea.
According to the unnamed official, the Ukraine air force has around 56 fighters left after almost three weeks of combat.
While Ukraine started the war with just under 100 combat aircraft, a simple subtraction may not tell the whole story with some of those aircraft likely out of service for one reason or another, with maintenance issue being a historic problem for Kyiv.
Even so that would seem to suggest, at first glance, not insignificant loses even if the remaining numbers of aircraft indicate that Russia’s early claim to have “neutralised” Ukraine air force and air defences was wide of the mark.
It would also go some way to explaining the renewed effort to hit Ukraine’s airfields in recent days.
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