The Los Angeles Lakers have lost eight of their last 10 games and are 10 games under .500, but they still feel pretty safe to at least make the play-in round. Entering play on Wednesday, the Lakers have just a two-loss lead over the No. 11 Blazers, but Portland is actively tanking and will fall out of the race soon. The threat is the No. 12 Spurs, who aren’t that close, trailing the Lakers by four games in the loss column with 13 to play.
We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Wednesday, March 16.
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix has all but locked up the No. 1 overall seed. With 11 games remaining, the Suns have a nine-loss lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies and No. 3 Warriors for the West’s No. 1 seed, and a 10-loss lead over the Heat for the top overall seed. Phoenix has clinched a playoff berth.
- Projected seed: 1
- Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Season series 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Golden State leads season series 2-1 with one to play
FIGHT FOR NO. 2 SEED
2. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is tied in the loss column with No. 3 Golden State. If it comes down to a tiebreaker, the Grizzlies currently lead the head-to-head season series 2-1, but there is one matchup with Golden State remaining on March 28. Memphis maintains a three-loss lead over the No. 4 Jazz but that lead is effectively four as Memphis has clinched the tiebreaker. Memphis has a four-loss lead over the No. 5 Mavericks.
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies lead season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
3. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are tied with No. 2 Memphis in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Golden State leads No. 4 Utah by three games in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Our SportsLine projections have the Warriors sticking as the No. 3 seed.
- Projected seed: 2
- Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Warriors trail season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS
4. Utah Jazz
Utah trails No. 2 Memphis and No. 3 Golden State by three games in the loss column. The priority is hanging onto the No. 4 seed, and that’s going to be a photo finish. The Jazz lead No. 5 Dallas by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. Projections have Utah hanging on to claim a top-four seed.
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Jazz lead season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
5. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks trail the No. 4 Jazz by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining on March 27. Dallas has an effective three-game lead over No. 6 Denver with the tiebreaker already secured and 12 games to play.
- Projected seed: 5
- Current first-round matchup: Jazz
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Dallas trails season series 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
6. Denver Nuggets
Denver trails the No. 5 Mavericks by an effective three games (Dallas owns tiebreaker) with 11 games to play. Denver’s priority is to hang onto a top-six seed. It leads No. 7 Minnesota by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1. Should Minnesota win that game, it will also secure the tiebreaker over Denver and this controls its own destiny for a top-six seed.
- Projected seed: 6
- Current first-round matchup: Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play
CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have a real shot to catch No. 6 Denver, which they trail by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining (which will decide the season tiebreaker). At worst, the Wolves are basically a lock to end up as the No. 7 seed with a seven-loss lead over the No. 8 Clippers, which means they’ll get two cracks at a play-in victory to secure a playoff spot.
- Projected seed: 7
- Current play-in matchup: Clippers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are pretty firm in the No. 8 spot, trailing the No. 7 Timberwolves by seven in the loss column and leading the No. 9 Lakers by an effective four with the Clippers having clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Projected seed: 8
- Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Clippers have clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
9. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are pretty much resigned to the second play-in game (they trail the No. 8 Clippers by an effective four games with 12 to play). The only question is whether they’ll have home-court advantage in that 9-10 game. At present, the Lakers lead the No. 10 Pelicans by one game with two head-to-head matchups remaining.
If the Pelicans can win those two games, they would also secure the tiebreaker. The Lakers feel pretty safe to at least make the play-in with a four-loss lead over the No. 12 Spurs.
- Projected seed: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Pelicans: Lakers trail season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)
10. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans trail the No. 9 Lakers by one game with two head-to-head matchups remaining, which will determine the tiebreaker, meaning New Orleans controls its own destiny for the No. 9 seed. The Pelicans have opened up a three-loss lead over the No. 11 Spurs, but there are two head-to-head matchups remaining.
- Projected seed: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Lakers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Lakers: Pelicans lead season series 1-0 with two matchups remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 12 Spurs: Pelicans trail season series 2-0 with two matchups remaining
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
- No. 11 San Antonio Spurs: Trailing No. 10 New Orleans by three in the loss column with two matchups remaining.
- No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers: Trailing No. 10 New Orleans by two in the loss column, but assumed to be tanking.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
FIGHT FOR NO. 1 SEED
1. Miami Heat
The Heat own a two-loss lead over No. 2 Milwaukee and No. 3 Philadelphia. Miami still plays the Sixers one more time.
- Projected seed: 1
- Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Heat lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
The Bucks sit ahead of the No. 3 Sixers via win percentage (tied in the loss column). The Bucks still have one matchup left with the Sixers on March 29. Milwaukee leads the No. 4 Celtics by two in the loss column with one matchup remaining. Milwaukee leads No. 5 Chicago by three in the loss column with two head-to-heads remaining.
- Projected seed: 2
- Current first-round matchup: Raptors vs. Nets play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining
Philly is tied in the loss column with No. 2 Milwaukee with one head-to-head matchup remaining. The Sixers hold a two-loss lead over No. 4 Boston (whoever finishes higher would also hold tiebreaker as the Atlantic Division winner and the season series tied 2-2). The Sixers have an effective four-game lead over the No. 5 Bulls with the tiebreaker secured. Projections have the Sixers ending up as the No. 4 seed behind Boston.
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: Cavaliers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Sixers trail season series 2-1 with one game to play
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Philly currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
BATTLE FOR TOP-FOUR SEED
4. Boston Celtics
The Celtics lead the No. 5 Bulls by one game with one head-to-head matchup remaining which will decide the tiebreaker. Boston trails No. 3 Philadelphia and No. 2 Milwaukee by just two in the loss column. The Celtics still have one game left with the Bucks; winning that game would secure the tiebreaker over Milwaukee. SportsLine projections have Boston jumping Philly for the No. 3 seed.
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: Bulls
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Philly currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
5. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are sliding by still controlling their own destiny for a top-four seed. They trail the Celtics by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining, which would also secure the season tiebreaker. Problem is the Bulls also only lead the No. 6 Cavaliers by one game with one head-to-head matchup remaining.
- Projected seed: 5
- Current first-round matchup: Celtics
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Chicago leads series 2-1 with one matchup remaining
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are one back of the No. 5 Bulls in the loss column with one matchup remaining. Cleveland’s more pressing concern is staying out of the play-in; the Cavs lead the No. 7 Raptors by just one in the loss column. Fortunately, the Cavs own the tiebreaker so that lead is effectively two.
- Projected seed: 6
- Current first-round matchup: Sixers
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with two games remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS
7. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have crawled within one game in the loss column of the No. 6 Cavs (Cleveland owns the tiebreaker so that lead margin is effectively two). As it stands right now, Toronto would play No. 8 Brooklyn (which it leads by three in the loss column) in the first Eastern Conference play-in game.
- Projected seed: 7
- Current play-in matchup: Nets
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)
8. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets remain three games back of the No. 7 Raptors with 11 games to play. The Nets’ priority is staying in the first play-in game. They only lead No. 9 Atlanta and No. 10 Charlotte by one game in the loss column with one matchup remaining against each.
- Projected seed: 8
- Current play-in matchup: Raptors
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Toronto: Raptors currently hold via division winning percentage (season series tied 2-2)
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Washington: Nets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)
Atlanta is pretty safe to make the play-in with a five-loss lead over No. 11 New York and No. 12 Washington. Atlanta currently trails the No. 8 Nets by just one in the loss column with one matchup remaining, but Brooklyn has clinched the tiebreaker. The Hawks are tied with No. 10 Charlotte, which owns the tiebreaker at present via a slightly better conference record. SportsLine projections have Atlanta falling behind Charlotte and ending up as the No. 10 seed.
- Projected seed: 10
- Current play-in matchup: Hornets
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage
The Hornets have won three straight are tied with No. 9 Atlanta in the loss column with 12 games remaining. Charlotte currently owns a one-game advantage on conference record, which would give it the tiebreaker. SportsLine projections have the Hornets passing the Hawks for the No. 9 seed. Catching the No. 8 Nets surely isn’t out of the question; Charlotte trails Brooklyn by one game with one matchup remaining.
- Projected seed: 9
- Current play-in matchup: Hawks
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
- Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
- No. 11 New York Knicks: Five losses back of the nearest play-in spot (Charlotte)
- No. 12 Washington Wizards: Five losses back of No. 10 Charlotte
No comments:
Post a Comment